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Abstract
Background Recent legislation repealing the Sustainable Growth Rate mandates gradual replacement of fee for service with alternative payment models (APMs), which will include service bundling. We analyzed the 2 years’ experience at our state-designated level I trauma center to determine the feasibility of such an approach for trauma care.
Methods De-identified data from all injured patients treated by the trauma service during 2014 and 2015 were reviewed to determine individual patient injury profiles. Using these injury profiles we created the ‘trauma bundle’ by concatenating the highest Abbreviated Injury Scale score for each of the six body regions to produce a single ‘signature’ of injury by region for every patient. These trauma bundles were analyzed by frequency over 2 years and by each year. The impacts of physiology and resource consumption were evaluated by determination of the correlation of the mean and SD of calculated survival probability (Ps) and intensive care unit length of stay (ICU LOS) for each profile group occurring more than 12 times in 2 years.
Results The 5813 patients treated over 2 years produced 858 distinct injury profiles, only 8% (71) of which occurred more than 12 times in 2 years. Comparison of 2014 and 2015 profiles demonstrated high frequency variation among profiles between the 2 years. Analysis of injury patterns occurring >12 times in 2 years demonstrated an inverse correlation between the mean and SD for Ps (R2=0.68) and a direct correlation for ICU LOS (R2=0.84).
Discussion These data indicate that the disease of injury is too inconsistent a mix of injury pattern and physiologic response to be predictably bundled for an APM. The inverse correlation of increasing SD with increasing ICU LOS and decreasing Ps suggests an opportunity for measurable process improvement.
Level of evidence Economic and value-based evaluations, level IV.
Study type Economic/decision.
- bundled payments
- alternative payment models (APMs)
- sustainable growth rate (SGR)
- fee for service
- MACRA
This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
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Footnotes
Contributors JJT designed this study. JJT, AM, AJK, and MLC drafted the manuscript. DJS, JHR, DE, JS, and AJK provided editorial assistance. AJK and MLC finalized and submitted the manuscript.
Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Competing interests None declared.
Patient consent Not required.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
Data sharing statement Please contact MLC for any data sharing questions. No additional unpublished data are available for this study.
Presented at This study was presented at the 75th Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma and Clinical Congress of Acute Care Surgery, September 14–17, 2016, Hilton Waikoloa Village, Hawaii.