Central Surgical AssociationPopulation analysis predicts a future critical shortage of general surgeons
Section snippets
Workforce analysis
The projection of the supply of general surgeons and the potential excess or shortfall is based on 4 elements: (1) the projection of surgeons needed based on population analysis; (2) the projection of attrition of surgeons due to retirement, disability, and death; (3) the number of new surgeons entering the workforce after completion of residency training; and (4) the total number of surgeons in clinical practice.
Assumptions
In this study, there are 6 assumptions or conditions used in predicting the future
Calculation of the number of surgeons needed
For an estimate of the general surgeons the following formula is used:
Estimated US population × 7.53/100,000 = No. of surgeons needed
The results are shown in Table I. In 2010, the projected number of surgeons needed is 23,175; in 2020, the number is 25,200; in 2030, 27,300; in 2040, 29,400; and in 2050, 31,500. This finding demonstrates the need for about 200 additional general surgeons per year.
Calculation of surgeons leaving the workforce secondary to retirement
With regard to retired surgeons (including disabilities and/or death), the projections are shown in
Estimates and projections
As Uwe Reinhardt,9 the healthcare economist at Princeton University, states “[It is a] daunting enterprise to estimate the physician surplus or shortage one or two decades into the future. Any of the variables in the equation can change over time, sometimes in unforeseen ways,” There are 3 approaches, or algorithms, to predict the future supply of physicians: (1) an economic, or trend, model; (2) a population model; and (3) estimating physicians needed by work effort studies.
Cooper, in his
Conclusions
According to simple population calculations, if the number of surgical trainees is not increased and the care model remains constant, there will not be a sufficient number of allopathic-trained general surgeons to care for the American people as early as 2010. The shortage will grow in each subsequent decade to 6,000 by 2050. The surgical profession will need to take steps to increase the appeal of general surgery to medical students. The government must take proactive steps to minimize the
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Supported in part by a grant for the artwork from the Columbus Medical Association Foundation.