Discussion
This first, pilot RCT of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy for trauma was inconclusive. While there was no significant difference in MAC or death within 30 days, conservative Bayesian analyses adjusted for baseline differences in Injury Severity Score and prerandomization blood products indicate a 66% probability that DEF increased MAC or death within 30 days. There were also significantly more deaths in the DEF group. These worrisome findings were counter to our hypothesis—worse outcomes were not found with DCL and it may, in fact, have been beneficial. A larger, definitive randomized trial to delineate these findings is needed. Importantly, this trial demonstrated that 24/7 randomization during an emergency trauma laparotomy was feasible.
While the deaths were individually reviewed by the Data Safety and Monitoring Board and thought to be not directly due to the intervention, the finding was nonetheless concerning. Five of the seven deaths were associated with a transition to comfort care in light of concomitant injuries or complications. With our small sample size, the significant increase in deaths may be due to the intervention, baseline differences and/or chance. There was considerable imprecision around the effect of DCL on death. While we observed no statistically significant differences in organ/space surgical site infection (DEF 38% vs DCL 28%, p=0.496), reopening after fascial closure (DEF 29% vs DCL 11%, p=0429) and fascial dehiscence (DEF 20% vs DCL 0%, p=0.110), each outcome was more common in the DEF group. This imprecision and uncertainty about the effect of DEF and the fragility of the trial results were reflected in the Bayesian analyses and their 95% CrIs. The RR point estimates of the unadjusted and adjusted primary outcome were 1.22 and 1.06, respectively. The 95% CrI in the adjusted analyses ranged from a 20% reduction to a 40% increase in MAC or death within 30 days. Both the unadjusted and adjusted Bayesian results are more consistent with an experienced clinician interpreting a small clinical trial with the observed absolute risk difference and relative risk than the frequentist analyses.
While the results of this pilot trial were counter to the hypothesis, it provided important information to plan a larger, definitive trial. First, clinical equipoise among a group of surgeons was able to be achieved; the use of standardized indications for DCL was established prior to this trial in a quality improvement initiative.11 Results from a multicenter, prospective, observational study suggests that clinical equipoise for the same indications was also present outside our institution. These same indications may be appropriate for a larger, multicenter randomized trial DCL.3 Second, social media allowed for efficient community consultation and public notification (both required to obtain an EFIC) in order to obtain greater reach at lesser cost than methods used in prior RCTs at our institution.12 18–20
Lastly, we augmented our statistical approach with Bayesian analyses to avoid the pervasive misinterpretation of frequentist analyses.16 Bayesian methods provide a formal method to estimate the probability of a treatment benefit or harm not directly assessed in frequentist analyses. Bayesian methods address the questions clinicians ask and quantify the uncertainty of a treatment effect estimate. As no unbiased prior estimates of treatment effect were available from prior trials, we used a neutral prior centered on a relative risk of 1.0 (meaning we assumed no difference between interventions) and with a 95% CrI of 0.5 to 2.0 (as large treatment effects outside this range are uncommon for important clinical outcomes). While a frequentist would conclude that there was no statistically significant difference between DEF and DCL, there was an 85% probability that DEF increased MAC or death compared with DCL in the unadjusted Bayesian analysis assuming no important baseline differences.
This trial was limited by its narrow scope, small size and a failure to accrue the targeted sample size. This trial focused on a very specific group of patients—those for whom surgeons had equipoise for DEF and DCL. Before planning this trial, there was significant variation in the use of DCL at our institution.4 The 3 years of work leading up to this study led to the stakeholder-driven creation of acceptable inclusion criteria and sample size estimation. This work also changed the practice around DCL at our institution, namely use of consensus-based absolute and relative indications for DCL, which led to the decreased utilization of DCL from 39% to 17%. In addition to these internal changes, external events negatively affected enrollment. For unknown reasons, there was a temporary decrease in emergency laparotomies being performed at the trauma center, an occurrence that has now reversed. The trial was also limited by an imbalance of baseline characteristics in randomized groups and a lack of blinding. Inability to blind was addressed by having objective definitions for outcomes and using independent surgeons for the evaluation of those that were more subjective. Lastly, the trial was stopped due to funding having ended and futility in accruing the estimated sample size within another 12 months.
In conclusion, our single-center pilot RCT was inconclusive and failed to provide definitive evidence to support our hypothesis. DCL was not worse than DEF and may have been beneficial. In the absence of any other RCT of DCL, our pilot trial indicates that a larger, multicenter trial is both feasible and necessary to compare DCL and DEF for patients with severe abdominal trauma. Until such a trial can confirm or refute the findings of this first RCT of DCL, we plan to liberalize our indications for DCL.