Likelihood | Predictors |
Very strong | Common bile duct stone on transabdominal ultrasound |
Clinical ascending cholangitis | |
Bilirubin >4 mg/dL | |
Strong | Dilated common bile duct (>6 mm) on ultrasound |
Bilirubin level 1.8–4 mg/dL | |
Moderate | Abnormal liver biochemical test other than bilirubin |
Age older than 55 years | |
Clinical gallstone pancreatitis |
Presence of any strong or both strong predictors suggests a high likelihood of choledocholithiasis. No predictors suggest a low likelihood, and all other patients have an intermediate likelihood.18 By definition, all patients enrolled in this trial will have at least a moderate likelihood because of the clinical diagnosis of gallstone pancreatitis.